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General discussion
canada goose victoriam-pi1-confThreadImage"> ANAF Meeting: May 2010
8 Bright Onapito 27 Jun 10, 08:32 AM
posted 7 yrs ago
By: mutale
ANAF information for COFI
0 Matthias Halwart 07 Jan 09, 03:07 PM
posted 9 yrs ago
By: Matthias Halwart
Video on tilapia aquaculture in Ghana
0 Valerio Crespi 18 Nov 08, 10:59 AM
posted 9 yrs ago
By: Valerio Crespi
Feed for Farmed Fish Project
0 Faith Wabulya Kiboneka 28 Oct 08, 02:58 PM
posted 9 yrs ago
By: Faith Wabulya Kiboneka
Networking
1 Panduleni Elago 28 Oct 08, 02:26 PM
posted 9 yrs ago
By: Faith Wabulya Kiboneka
FAO Cultured Aquatic Species fact sheets programme
0 Valerio Crespi 23 Oct 08, 11:51 AM
posted 9 yrs ago
By: Valerio Crespi
ANAF Forum extending to Nambia
0 Faith Wabulya Kiboneka 13 Oct 08, 08:53 AM
posted 9 yrs ago
By: Faith Wabulya Kiboneka
ANAF Working Group Assignments
0 Faith Wabulya Kiboneka 29 Sep 08, 10:10 PM
posted 9 yrs ago
By: Faith Wabulya Kiboneka
FAO Workshop on Development of an Aquatic Biosecurity Framework for Southern Africa (Lilongwe Workshop), held in Sunbird Hotel, Lilongwe, Malawi, from 22-24 April 2008.
0 Valerio Crespi 22 Aug 08, 12:11 PM
posted 9 yrs ago
By: Valerio Crespi
Update: SPADA
1 John Moehl 04 Aug 08, 09:41 AM
posted 9 yrs ago
By: John Moehl
Meet ANAF Working Group members here!
2 Chris Nugent 01 Aug 08, 09:44 AM
posted 9 yrs ago
By: John Moehl
Update: SPADA
0 John Moehl 30 Jul 08, 08:23 PM
posted 9 yrs ago
By: John Moehl
Testing the new forum discusion
0 Gilson R. Njunga 06 May 08, 02:10 PM
posted 10 yrs ago
By: Gilson R. Njunga
CTA Position/Ghana
0 John Moehl 02 Apr 08, 07:58 PM
posted 10 yrs ago
By: John Moehl
Some Mattes for Discussion
3 John Moehl 18 Mar 08, 07:59 PM
posted 10 yrs ago
By: John Moehl
Computers for ANAF
0 John Moehl 07 Mar 08, 06:02 PM
posted 10 yrs ago
By: John Moehl
Minimum technical requirements for workstation in the ANAF National Centres
0 Valerio Crespi 07 Mar 08, 10:00 AM
posted 10 yrs ago
By: Valerio Crespi
what resources needed in transition to ANAF?
0 Chris Nugent 05 Mar 08, 02:32 PM
posted 10 yrs ago
By: Chris Nugent
Information material to feed ANAF website
0 Valerio Crespi 03 Mar 08, 10:39 AM
posted 10 yrs ago
By: Valerio Crespi
SARNISSA
0 Randy Brummett 29 Feb 08, 10:28 AM
posted 10 yrs ago
By: Randy Brummett
establishment of the ANAF Forum to facilitate the discussion
1 Valerio Crespi 28 Feb 08, 06:31 PM
posted 10 yrs ago
By: Chris Nugent
national timetables for joining an IGO
0 Chris Nugent 28 Feb 08, 06:29 PM
posted 10 yrs ago
By: Chris Nugent
Total Threads: 22 - Pages (1): [1]
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Will global populism derail Jamaica’s emerging economic turnaround?

BY KEITH COLLISTER

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Tweet

.remove_caption { display: none; }




An old soothsayer advised Roman Emperor Julius Caesar to "Beware the Ides of March", or March 15th, which became forever famous as the date of his assassination.


This year, an unusual confluence of international events occur today, suggesting that there is a strong need for Jamaicans to begin to focus on events abroad, despite the fact that we are in our own newsworthy budget season.


Perhaps the most important is the Dutch election, where last week, according to one international bank’s analysis, Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom (PVV) were the most popular party on Twitter (the new political medium ) with 12 per cent of collected tweets. In the Netherlands Wilders has apparently pioneered the use of outrageous tweets that infuriate his opponents and fire up his followers according to
The Economist . He was followed by GroenLinks (Green-Left; GL) at 6.5 per cent, and incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) at 5.5 per cent.


Judged by this "new" medium, the incumbent somewhat recovered this week, and the formal polls remain very tight.


In any case, the Netherlands typical coalition government structure means that the election is likely less important in terms of who gets the top job (Wilders won’t necessarily become prime minister even if he comes first), but as a weathervane as to where European politics is going.


In particular, the next test of European democracy will be the first round of voting on April 23rd, where Marine Le Pen’s National Front is expected to win. If she wins, she will go into a run-off in May against whoever comes second.


Currently, neither of the two main French establishment parties, the Socialists nor the Republicans, look likely to provide the alternative, showing what an unusual year this is, where nothing can be taken for granted.


The fundamental problem here, in the words of the great Financial Times financial journalist Martin Wolf, is that "The euro has been a disaster", like a "bad marriage".


In his book, The Shifts and the Shocks , Wolf observes, "A project intended to strengthen solidarity, bring prosperity and weaken German economic domination of Europe has achieved precisely the opposite."


Even if the euro survives the French election (which assumes the defeat of Marine Le Pen in the second round), there is still the Italian election looming, which may prove to be the "sleeper" threat.


Italy’s leading populist party is now led by a comedian. And for nearly two decades it has had a growth record very similar to that of Jamaica (for much of that period it was run by a scandal-prone larger- than-life politically entertaining media billionaire), as well as a now almost identical debt-to- GDP ratio.


The main difference with Jamaica is that our debt to GDP ratio is going down, and our growth rate appears to be rising faster than that of Italy, from similarly depressed levels.


The Federal Open Market Committee "Fed" decision as to whether to raise interest rates for only the third time in a decade is also due today.


Historically, an old market rule is that the Fed raising three times precedes a "stumble", meaning a stock market decline. Furthermore, the new debt ceiling (meaning a cap on US public sector borrowing), comes back into place today.


In 2015, President Obama and Republican congressional leaders agreed to suspend the federal debt ceiling until March 15, 2017, after which the US government would have to begin again the manoeuvres we saw last time (involving the Social Security Trust Fund and other funds), in lieu of borrowing.


While the most likely result is that it is soon raised, hopefully quickly, any debate over the US debt will again bring the cost of the new "promises" of the new US government to the fore.


Against this backdrop, in the United Kingdom, on Monday Scottish Nationalist leader announced, ironically on Commonwealth day, her intention to seek another Scottish independence vote (the last one was in 2014), based on Britain’s plans to leave the European Union, a process UK Prime Minister Theresa May intends to trigger this month.


Despite all this, the US stock markets fear gauge, known as the VIX (based on Chicago Board Options Exchange index prices), was recently at historic lows (it has fallen 30 per cent since Trump’s election although it has risen a bit this week), reflecting the strong US stock market rally since the election.


US consumer sentiment, and small business sentiment, is also at highs, reflecting strong expectations of better economic performance. Most of the rally appears to have been driven by hopes of reform of the US tax system, "an ungodly mess" in the words of one economist, and particularly expectations of the reduction of the US corporate rate of tax to 15 or 20 per cent.


The rest of it appears to be driven by expectations of a sharp "trillion dollar" increase in infrastructure spending (not necessarily all directly financed by the US government), and a reduction in regulation, particularly on the financial sector.


Share prices of financial institutions have recovered much more slowly since the financial crisis than other sectors, reflecting vastly increased regulation, so their sharp rally since the US election appears to reflect expectations of deregulation and higher interest rates, the latter allowing them to earn a greater "spread", meaning higher net interest income.


Wall Street titans, such as JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon, and Blackrock’s Steve Schwarzman, the head of probably America’s largest bank and fund manager respectively, each controlling trillions of US dollars, have referred to the apparent reawakening of investors’ "animal spirits", using Cambridge economist John Maynard Keynes’ famous phrase.


A full discussion of what is happening globally would require a much longer article. Nevertheless, I believe the correct starting point is to consider again a chart by French bank Société Générale SA at the end of last year, revisited in a recent Bloomberg piece.


Called "the most worrying chart we know", Société Générale showed their surging index of global economic policy uncertainty severing its historical link with credit spreads, which have declined in recent months along with other measures of investor fear.


In short, I believe that it is "irrational exuberance", not "animal spirits" that we are now seeing in the US stock market, which also happens to be the titles of leading US economist Professor Robert Shillers’ 2000 and 2009 books.


Shiller, of course, is famous for his warnings on the "dot com" excesses of 2000, and the housing market excesses that preceded the 2008 crash. Indeed, it may even be a case of "phishing for phools", meaning the economics of manipulation and deception, which is the title of his latest book with Professor George Akerlof.


As Shiller himself noted in another Bloomberg article yesterday on "the Trump rally", it is doubtful that "this time is different". Indeed, the extreme divergence between near unprecedented policy uncertainty, and the "fearless" VIX may be the canary in the coal mine.


This time the risk is more geopolitical (a much longer conversation) than straight economic.


The conclusion is therefore that Minister Shaw is only being prudent in trying to continue to move Jamaica from its overdependence on oil by taxing gas.


According to Bloomberg , Saudi Arabia announced Tuesday that it raised output back above 10 million barrels a day in February — reversing about a third of the cuts made the previous month — with oil prices falling to their lowest level since late November.


West Texas Intermediate for April delivery dropped as low as US$47.09 yesterday, and ended the day at US$48.40, or a nearly 10 per cent fall from the previous week.


In the short term, lower oil prices will hopefully provide an opportunity for Jamaica to begin the process of reshaping its economy (eg by making its tax system more competitive) before the potential fuses lit during the Ides of March have their full impact — likely to be in the second half of the year, and more particularly 2018.

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canadá ganso usa
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Will global populism derail Jamaica’s emerging economic turnaround?

BY KEITH COLLISTER

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Tweet

.remove_caption { display: none; }




An old soothsayer advised Roman Emperor Julius Caesar to "Beware the Ides of March", or March 15th, which became forever famous as the date of his assassination.


This year, an unusual confluence of international events occur today, suggesting that there is a strong need for Jamaicans to begin to focus on events abroad, despite the fact that we are in our own newsworthy budget season.


Perhaps the most important is the Dutch election, where last week, according to one international bank’s analysis, Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom (PVV) were the most popular party on Twitter (the new political medium ) with 12 per cent of collected tweets. In the Netherlands Wilders has apparently pioneered the use of outrageous tweets that infuriate his opponents and fire up his followers according to
The Economist . He was followed by GroenLinks (Green-Left; GL) at 6.5 per cent, and incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) at 5.5 per cent.


Judged by this "new" medium, the incumbent somewhat recovered this week, and the formal polls remain very tight.


In any case, the Netherlands typical coalition government structure means that the election is likely less important in terms of who gets the top job (Wilders won’t necessarily become prime minister even if he comes first), but as a weathervane as to where European politics is going.


In particular, the next test of European democracy will be the first round of voting on April 23rd, where Marine Le Pen’s National Front is expected to win. If she wins, she will go into a run-off in May against whoever comes second.


Currently, neither of the two main French establishment parties, the Socialists nor the Republicans, look likely to provide the alternative, showing what an unusual year this is, where nothing can be taken for granted.


The fundamental problem here, in the words of the great Financial Times financial journalist Martin Wolf, is that "The euro has been a disaster", like a "bad marriage".


In his book, The Shifts and the Shocks , Wolf observes, "A project intended to strengthen solidarity, bring prosperity and weaken German economic domination of Europe has achieved precisely the opposite."


Even if the euro survives the French election (which assumes the defeat of Marine Le Pen in the second round), there is still the Italian election looming, which may prove to be the "sleeper" threat.


Italy’s leading populist party is now led by a comedian. And for nearly two decades it has had a growth record very similar to that of Jamaica (for much of that period it was run by a scandal-prone larger- than-life politically entertaining media billionaire), as well as a now almost identical debt-to- GDP ratio.


The main difference with Jamaica is that our debt to GDP ratio is going down, and our growth rate appears to be rising faster than that of Italy, from similarly depressed levels.


The Federal Open Market Committee "Fed" decision as to whether to raise interest rates for only the third time in a decade is also due today.


Historically, an old market rule is that the Fed raising three times precedes a "stumble", meaning a stock market decline. Furthermore, the new debt ceiling (meaning a cap on US public sector borrowing), comes back into place today.


In 2015, President Obama and Republican congressional leaders agreed to suspend the federal debt ceiling until March 15, 2017, after which the US government would have to begin again the manoeuvres we saw last time (involving the Social Security Trust Fund and other funds), in lieu of borrowing.


While the most likely result is that it is soon raised, hopefully quickly, any debate over the US debt will again bring the cost of the new "promises" of the new US government to the fore.


Against this backdrop, in the United Kingdom, on Monday Scottish Nationalist leader announced, ironically on Commonwealth day, her intention to seek another Scottish independence vote (the last one was in 2014), based on Britain’s plans to leave the European Union, a process UK Prime Minister Theresa May intends to trigger this month.


Despite all this, the US stock markets fear gauge, known as the VIX (based on Chicago Board Options Exchange index prices), was recently at historic lows (it has fallen 30 per cent since Trump’s election although it has risen a bit this week), reflecting the strong US stock market rally since the election.


US consumer sentiment, and small business sentiment, is also at highs, reflecting strong expectations of better economic performance. Most of the rally appears to have been driven by hopes of reform of the US tax system, "an ungodly mess" in the words of one economist, and particularly expectations of the reduction of the US corporate rate of tax to 15 or 20 per cent.


The rest of it appears to be driven by expectations of a sharp "trillion dollar" increase in infrastructure spending (not necessarily all directly financed by the US government), and a reduction in regulation, particularly on the financial sector.


Share prices of financial institutions have recovered much more slowly since the financial crisis than other sectors, reflecting vastly increased regulation, so their sharp rally since the US election appears to reflect expectations of deregulation and higher interest rates, the latter allowing them to earn a greater "spread", meaning higher net interest income.


Wall Street titans, such as JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon, and Blackrock’s Steve Schwarzman, the head of probably America’s largest bank and fund manager respectively, each controlling trillions of US dollars, have referred to the apparent reawakening of investors’ "animal spirits", using Cambridge economist John Maynard Keynes’ famous phrase.


A full discussion of what is happening globally would require a much longer article. Nevertheless, I believe the correct starting point is to consider again a chart by French bank Société Générale SA at the end of last year, revisited in a recent Bloomberg piece.


Called "the most worrying chart we know", Société Générale showed their surging index of global economic policy uncertainty severing its historical link with credit spreads, which have declined in recent months along with other measures of investor fear.


In short, I believe that it is "irrational exuberance", not "animal spirits" that we are now seeing in the US stock market, which also happens to be the titles of leading US economist Professor Robert Shillers’ 2000 and 2009 books.